O debate sobre a consolidação orçamental e o estado da economia tem estado dividido em dois campos. Por um lado, os que defendem que se deve reduzir os défices dos Estados rapidamente, de forma a inspirar confiança nos mercados. Por outro, os que defendem que os Governos ainda devem continuar com políticas expansionistas, gerando mais dívida pública para instigar o crescimento económico.
Para o autor, professor em Berkeley, a resposta depende do país. Para Portugal, Espanha e Grécia, privilegie-se o controlo da despesa:
"Here, the plausible passengers are southern European firms. They understand that their countries’ fiscal positions are unsustainable. They know that debt default would be disruptive. Seeing the economy hurtling toward a brick wall, they are holding their collective breath, while evidence that the government is serious about stepping on the brake can induce them to exhale. In this case, fiscal consolidation is likely to affect their investment spending positively.
This does not mean that Greece, Portugal, and Spain will expand as robustly as Denmark, Ireland, and Finland did in the 1980’s and 1990’s. They can’t lower the exchange rate to aid exports. But they can reduce interest rates by eliminating the perceived risk of sovereign default. Banks will be able to borrow from one another for less, and thus able to lend to firms for less. This suggests that investment may respond better than the pessimists fear."
Para os EUA, China, Alemanha e Japão, continuem os incentivos:
"But what might work in southern Europe has no chance of working elsewhere. In other G-20 economies, including the United States, Germany, China, and Japan, the car is still cruising down an open road. Fiscal velocity may be considerable – that is, deficits may be large – but there is no sign of a brick wall ahead. Interest rates on government debt are still low. If the passengers were growing restive, they would rise. At this point, they have not.
In these countries, there is therefore no reason to think that fiscal consolidation would have a strong positive effect on confidence. That possibility could arise sometime in the future, when the proverbial brick wall comes into view. But it is not on the horizon yet, which means that there would be no positive private-spending response to buffer public-spending cuts. As a result, budget cuts would be strongly contractionary."
